Austin Real Estate Market and COVID-19

COVID-19 has and is affecting the Austin real estate market in a number of ways. We understand that there is no one size fits all fix. Each client will have a different set of needs and we are happy to discuss those needs with a phone call, video conference, or safely in person.

The easiest way to tell if the market is turning is by looking at the number of pending sales and the number of new closings. These are lagging indicators as most sales go under contract 30-45 days prior to closing and most buyers generally start shopping 1-6 months before they choose a  property to purchase.  Can we determine a market is turning by following these lagging indicators? The answer is complex, but I believe with careful tracking and statistical analysis we can start to see if a market is turning.

Sellers are affected in different ways depending on the sub-market. Seller’s in the entry-level price points, which in the Austin area is under $400K, and those sellers that are closer to the city center have a much better experience. Vacant properties are also strategically easier to market and show than an occupied property. I will discuss this further in a future blog post.

Here is a statistical look at the Austin Market by price point. I have chosen to track these indicators on a daily basis to get a full grasp of what is going on which allows me to discuss it.

AUSTIN MARKET BY PRICE POINT

$0 – $200,000 $200,000 – $300,000 $300,000 – 400,000 $400,000 – $500,000 $500,000 – $600,000
Date Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv
3/31/2020 402 311 603 2.00 1646 1930 2664 1.85 1446 1141 1751 2.48 815 612 951 2.57 489 354 546 2.69
4/2/2020 420 320 631 2.00 1716 1889 2785 1.85 1508 1125 1835 2.47 847 614 982 2.59 502 365 572 2.63
4/3/2020 423 320 624 2.03 1758 1837 2821 1.87 1535 1101 1859 2.48 868 599 986 2.64 511 358 574 2.67
4/4/2020 426 325 627 2.04 1798 1817 2863 1.88 1559 1108 1884 2.48 889 589 1008 2.65 515 354 583 2.65
4/5/2020 422 332 627 2.02 1795 1824 2865 1.88 1553 1115 1886 2.47 901 586 1011 2.67 514 355 584 2.64
4/6/2020 422 332 620 2.04 1789 1831 2852 1.88 1539 1126 1877 2.46 891 590 1003 2.67 513 349 589 2.61
4/7/2020 427 327 622 2.06 1771 1821 2869 1.85 1541 1114 1896 2.44 887 594 1012 2.63 512 338 598 2.57
4/8/2020 425 328 625 2.04 1767 1828 2877 1.84 1553 1099 1909 2.44 884 591 1025 2.59 515 331 602 2.57
4/9/2020 418 332 626 2.00 1769 1813 2883 1.84 1563 1083 1924 2.44 885 593 1024 2.59 520 322 604 2.58
4/10/2020 419 326 619 2.03 1804 1792 2871 1.89 1594 1072 1930 2.48 893 594 1007 2.66 537 319 603 2.67
4/11/2020 434 325 625 2.08 1839 1789 2896 1.91 1615 1063 1948 2.49 900 587 1021 2.64 550 312 608 2.71
4/12/2020 431 330 626 2.07 1845 1793 2904 1.91 1620 1070 1956 2.48 901 588 1024 2.64 552 312 612 2.71
4/13/2020 430 330 625 2.06 1839 1799 2871 1.92 1615 1067 1939 2.50 896 592 1017 2.64 553 314 608 2.73
4/14/2020 424 331 624 2.04 1824 1804 2878 1.90 1588 1070 1947 2.45 892 588 1026 2.61 552 311 614 2.70
4/15/2020 431 330 611 2.12 1814 1802 2865 1.90 1582 1057 1951 2.43 892 585 1024 2.61 560 311 606 2.77
4/16/2020 434 328 608 2.14 1840 1777 2883 1.91 1596 1044 1965 2.44 913 576 1026 2.67 566 311 610 2.78
4/17/2020 435 324 607 2.15 1882 1759 2866 1.97 1616 1032 1944 2.49 926 570 1021 2.72 572 314 607 2.83
4/22/2020 437 323 619 2.12 1844 1780 2976 1.86 1589 1054 2003 2.38 914 572 1057 2.59 564 330 636 2.66
4/23/2020 438 310 628 2.09 1817 1789 2985 1.83 1609 1042 2019 2.39 911 575 1062 2.57 571 336 640 2.68
4/24/2020 434 318 619 2.10 1840 1774 2969 1.86 1634 1037 2021 2.43 919 583 1058 2.61 585 331 641 2.74
4/25/2020 433 319 627 2.07 1880 1770 3019 1.87 1664 1037 2052 2.43 944 584 1073 2.64 593 333 647 2.75
4/26/2020 433 322 627 2.07 1869 1786 3026 1.85 1662 1051 2052 2.43 954 587 1075 2.66 597 336 648 2.76
4/27/2020 427 327 621 2.06 1868 1808 2986 1.88 1640 1076 2043 2.41 949 587 1071 2.66 592 344 643 2.76
4/28/2020 427 329 622 2.06 1845 1838 2974 1.86 1624 1092 2049 2.38 942 599 1073 2.63 589 344 651 2.71
$600,000 – $700,000 $700,000 – $800,000 $800,000 – $900,000 $900,000 – $1,000,000 $1,000,000+
Date Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv Active Pend Sold  Mnts Inv
3/31/2020 374 201 298 3.77 200 108 179 3.35 177 62 109 4.87 101 38 83 3.65 693 169 211 9.85
4/2/2020 389 203 310 3.76 222 116 184 3.62 189 61 115 4.93 111 41 83 4.01 692 161 218 9.52
4/3/2020 393 205 312 3.78 225 117 187 3.61 190 60 116 4.91 113 40 84 4.04 699 158 222 9.45
4/4/2020 398 205 316 3.78 237 111 194 3.66 194 56 116 5.02 121 41 84 4.32 707 154 227 9.34
4/5/2020 399 205 317 3.78 237 112 194 3.66 195 56 116 5.04 119 42 84 4.25 709 153 228 9.33
4/6/2020 402 204 318 3.79 238 109 196 3.64 192 57 115 5.01 118 43 83 4.27 705 152 227 9.32
4/7/2020 398 206 318 3.75 235 107 197 3.58 192 58 115 5.01 119 42 85 4.20 700 153 230 9.13
4/8/2020 398 203 317 3.77 237 107 195 3.65 192 56 116 4.97 120 43 86 4.19 701 151 231 9.10
4/9/2020 400 202 319 3.76 233 110 192 3.64 190 57 116 4.91 119 44 87 4.10 700 145 231 9.09
4/10/2020 408 192 323 3.79 235 113 193 3.65 196 57 113 5.20 120 44 87 4.14 707 147 231 9.18
4/11/2020 417 188 326 3.84 233 109 199 3.51 198 57 115 5.17 122 41 89 4.11 712 150 232 9.21
4/12/2020 418 187 327 3.83 234 110 199 3.53 199 55 116 5.15 121 40 91 3.99 710 152 234 9.10
4/13/2020 417 189 322 3.89 234 110 198 3.55 201 55 116 5.20 121 40 89 4.08 707 155 233 9.10
4/14/2020 419 189 327 3.84 231 112 200 3.47 202 56 117 5.18 122 40 87 4.21 703 158 231 9.13
4/15/2020 420 189 327 3.85 232 108 200 3.48 200 57 121 4.96 121 38 87 4.17 694 160 231 9.01
4/16/2020 423 185 327 3.88 233 113 201 3.48 199 52 125 4.78 121 38 87 4.17 697 156 232 9.01
4/17/2020 431 184 321 4.03 237 111 198 3.59 203 51 124 4.91 122 38 86 4.26 697 155 233 8.97
4/22/2020 423 194 332 3.82 231 116 211 3.28 206 53 129 4.79 120 43 86 4.19 706 153 245 8.64
4/23/2020 415 203 332 3.75 236 117 211 3.36 207 54 127 4.89 126 43 86 4.40 711 150 247 8.64
4/24/2020 423 205 326 3.89 240 120 210 3.43 210 55 127 4.96 130 41 86 4.53 716 149 248 8.66
4/25/2020 424 204 335 3.80 248 118 212 3.51 209 56 129 4.86 132 41 89 4.45 728 146 252 8.67
4/26/2020 424 206 336 3.79 250 116 213 3.52 209 58 129 4.86 131 42 89 4.42 725 145 255 8.53
4/27/2020 423 207 330 3.85 247 119 213 3.48 211 58 128 4.95 130 41 88 4.43 726 146 254 8.57
4/28/2020 415 208 337 3.69 246 118 209 3.53 210 62 128 4.92 133 41 88 4.53 722 151 253 8.56

 

The graph shows that we still generally lack inventory in most price points up to $800,000. The market above $800,000 is more of a buyers market and the buyers are generally looking for something very specific if they are going to purchase at this price point. The market also has shown increasing inventory in all price points but, still not enough to make the market a buyer’s market. The selection is greater and seller’s need to do the things necessary to stand out.

Inventory in the 550,000+ price point has seen the biggest challenges as there have been some changes in the Jumbo loan market. A jumbo loan is currently any conventional loan that is above $424,100 and when we consider a buyer putting 20% down this is why it would affect homes priced above $550,000. Here is an article that discusses the Jumbo Loan Market and what is happening to those loans.

There are active buyers in the market and in general more buyers are active in entry level markets. The luxury, suburban, & relocation-dependent markets have the fewest number of buyers. We do still see multiple offers on properties in those desirable neighborhoods and because of inventory challenges in the entry level price.  We see fewer buyers and we don’t list properties with the expectation of a quick sale.